The 2023-2024 NBA season is under two weeks away and there’s plenty of anticipation for the opening tip off. Whether it be offseason acquisitions, rookies ready to make an immediate impact or teams looking to take home the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy, fans are counting every waking day until the season begins. It seems like the perfect time to make predictions for the new season.
Most Valuable Player: Luka Dončić, Guard, Dallas Mavericks
The last time a guard won Most Valuable Player was in 2018, when James Harden took home the award. Since then, it has been won twice by Giannis Antetokoumpo and Nikola Jokić, before 76ers center Joel Embiid grabbed the trophy. However, it’s going to go to arguably the best guard in the league.
Since his inauguration into the NBA, Dončić has been one of the league’s premier players. He is an all-around superstar, serving as the Mavericks’ primary scoring option, while mastering opposing team’s defenses with ease and collecting a healthy amount of rebounds. Dončić makes highlight plays day in and day out and looks like a magician on the court, which is fitting for Luka Magic.
The MVP award usually goes to a player on a top team in the league, with the rare exception, such as Russell Westbrook’s historic 2017 campaign, which saw the Thunder finish only sixth in the Western Conference. Dallas hasn’t placed higher than fourth place in the conference in any of Dončić’s seasons, primarily due to the lack of talent surrounding him. This season seems to be a year where that won’t be the case.
First and foremost, having Kyrie Irving for a full season is a huge bonus. Irving was dealt from Brooklyn last season and melded well with Dončić. Along with Irving returning, guard Tim Hardaway Jr. serves as a solid scoring piece to alleviate the defensive pressure that would otherwise go to Dončić and Irving. A primary focus was opening up the floor for Dončić to work, and the additions of sharpshooters Seth Curry and Grant Williams will certainly provide the floor spacing Dallas was looking for. The biggest concern for Dallas is if their big men make an impact.
Dončić has been and will continue to be a superstar in the league. With Dallas most likely taking a step forward, Dončić will finally get to hoist the MVP award at the end of the season.
Rookie of the Year: Scoot Henderson, Guard, Portland Trail Blazers
All of the hype leading up to this year’s NBA draft was around French freak Victor Wembanyama. He has arguably been the most touted international prospect the NBA has seen, causing him to go first overall to the San Antonio Spurs. However, the player who fell to the third pick is going to take the award from Wembanyama: Portland guard Scoot Henderson.
Henderson didn’t take the traditional route that many high school prospects usually do. Instead of going to college, he elected to sign into the G League Ignite. Henderson showed out, with his hype-athleticism and crafty finishing being at the forefront of what scouts were drooling over. His playmaking is solid, while also rebounding at a good rate for a guard. The only major concern is his outside shot, as it seems to be his only true weakness.
Henderson is the new king of the realm, with Portland shipping off longtime superstar Damian Lillard, and Jrue Holiday’s Portland tenure only lasting a week before being dealt. Henderson is going to lead a young, rebuilding core with the likes of Shaedon Sharpe, Anfernee Simons, late first round pick Kris Murray and newly-acquired big men Robert Williams and Deandre Ayton. Along with the young stars, the Blazers brought in reigning Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdan, who will serve as mentor to the young guards. With young talent surrounding him and the new mentorship, it’s not hard to see why Henderson can take home some hardware at the end of the season.
Defensive Player of the Year: Evan Mobley, Forward, Cleveland Cavaliers
In a day and age where it seems defense no longer exists in the NBA, the Cavaliers have put together one of the league’s premier ones. In the 2022-2023 season, they had the best defensive rating in the league, while finishing sixth in points per game allowed. While they might not lead in the counting defensive stats, such as steals and blocks, their defense is still able to shut down opposing offenses. One driving force behind their success is forward Evan Mobley.
Mobley was selected third overall in the 2021 NBA Draft as it seemed that Cleveland was in rebuild mode. Since then, the Cavs have become a legitimate threat in the Eastern Conference, largely in part to Mobley’s play. While his offensive production is valuable, Cleveland gets the most from him on the other end of the floor. He is a defensive anchor, collecting no less than 3.7 win shares over his first two seasons, leading the league in that category last season. Mobley also collects a healthy amount of blocks and is able to nab a solid amount of steals for a big man.
Cleveland will remain on the come up; it’s almost a guarantee that they’ll be a top four playoff team with a chance to make a deep playoff run for years to come. Mobley is at the center of why they’ll have success, being that defensive anchor that many teams need. Though he finished as a finalist for the Defensive Player of the Year last season, he’ll take home the trophy this year.
Most Improved Player: Jabari Smith Jr., Forward, Houston Rockets
Most Improved Player is arguably the hardest award to pick, as anyone could have a breakout season. However, factors like change of scenery, new acquisitions to the team and taking on a larger role give someone a good chance to win the award. For Rockets’ forward Jabari Smith Jr., several factors give him a great opportunity.
Smith Jr. performed well in his rookie season, serving as one of the lone bright spots on an underwhelming Houston team. Though he played well, his numbers dipped from his lone year at Auburn. While that’s not abnormal for rookies, the decrease in numbers is something Houston would like to see change. His percentages took a dive, especially behind the arc, as he shot 12% worse than he did in college. Now, he’s had a season under his belt and he’s gotten used to a farther three-point line, so the expectation is he will find a median between his collegiate season and last year, with Houston hoping it’s closer to his numbers at Auburn.
On top of that, Smith will be given a bigger role, with fellow forward Kevin Porter Jr. having off-court issues that will most likely lead to a suspension and hinder his relationship with the organization. The dynamic duo will now be Smith Jr. and guard Jalen Green to try to lead Houston out of the depths of the Western Conference.
Smith Jr. has a lot going in the right direction for personal success. If he is able to regain the percentages he had in college and combine it with his enhanced role for Houston, he could very well secure the George Mikan Award.
Sixth Man of the Year: Kelly Oubre Jr., Forward, Philadelphia 76ers
Many of the elite teams in NBA history have had that one player who came off the bench and served as the jolt the team needed. The last four Sixth Man of the Year winners were on teams who placed top two in their conference and made a run. While Philadelphia may not do either, it’s hard to look past the production Kelly Oubre Jr. is going to provide off the bench.
Serving as a bench player isn’t a role that Oubre Jr. is unfamiliar with, as he served as a reserve in the 2021-2022 season for the Charlotte Hornets. He will have a similar role this season, with the Sixers frontcourt likely to be Embiid, Tobias Harris and P.J. Tucker. Oubre Jr. could slot in at the two, if the Harden drama isn’t solved by opening night, but it seems most likely that he will serve as a reserve.
Though only playing in 48 games last season, Oubre Jr. put up a career high in points per game, averaging just north of 20. Though Embiid, Harden, and Tyrese Maxey might be the priorities in the offense, Oubre Jr. is still going to get his shots, and if he is able to recreate last season’s success, it’s not farfetched to see him take home his first NBA award.
NBA Champions: Los Angeles Clippers
The NBA has plenty of powerhouses this season. Whether it be the reigning champion Denver Nuggets, retooled top teams like the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors, or teams who showed great strides of improvement, like the Sacramento Kings and Memphis Grizzlies, almost every team could bid for a championship. However, it will be a super team that was formed a few years ago and has failed to find playoff success: the Los Angeles Clippers.
During the 2019 offseason, the Clippers added two superstars, signing reigning Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard and trading for reigning MVP and Defensive Player of the Year finalist Paul George on the same day. Los Angeles hasn’t seen what they’ve wanted from their newly formed dynamic duo, as neither has played in over 60 games in any of the four seasons of being together, while only reaching the Western Conference Finals once.
Last season, Los Angeles acquired key backcourt pieces in Bones Hyland and Westbrook. Hyland served a similar role that he had in Denver, while Westbrook fully embraced his role, no longer serving as the primary scoring option, which saw his shooting percentages increase. This offseason, Los Angeles brought in Kenyon Martin Jr., who took strides forward statistically.
Along with the acquisitions, Los Angeles has backcourt reserves Norman Powell and Terrance Mann, both of whom are spark plugs off the bench. The frontcourt has a pair of veteran three-point marksmen, Marcus Morris and Nicholas Batum, to go along with glass cleaner Ivica Zubac.
The big if, as is the case with most teams, is if their stars can stay healthy. For Los Angeles, it is most important. Leonard and George are two of the premier wings in the game today, and with the supporting cast around them, a healthy Clippers duo can capture the trophy that has eluded the franchise since its entry into the NBA.
All stats are from Basketball Reference as of Oct. 10.
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