The group stage of the 2023-24 installation of the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) Champions League (UCL) came to a close in mid-December. With the first matches of the Round of 16 starting on Feb. 13, now is a perfect time to recap the group stage and predict who will advance to the quarterfinals.
The group stage saw 32 teams be split into eight groups with four teams each. The teams then played a round-robin style tournament, with each team taking on the other teams twice. A win rewards the victorious team three points, a draw means both teams take a point, and a loss means the losing team receives no points.
Group A
German giant Bayern Munich were favorites in the first group, and their performances did not disappoint. They took 16 points through their six matches, winning five and only drawing once. That draw came against FC Copenhagen, who secured second place with eight points. Manchester United had a disappointing tournament, the English side only managing four points and a lone win against Copenhagen.
Group B
Premier League runners-up Arsenal FC were the favorites in group B. The club followed through with those expectations and earned 13 points en route to a first place finish. They also notched the highest goal differential (goals scored – goals against) in the group stage with +12. Second place was a close fight between Dutch side PSV Eindhoven and French club RC Lens. The two clubs drew in their first match, but PSV claimed a 1-0 victory over Lens in their second match. This win proved to be crucial for PSV, as they advanced to the Round of 16 with nine points as opposed to Lens’ eight.
Group C
Spanish titan Real Madrid dominated, being one of two teams to win every single match in the group stage. Their 4-2 victory over runners-up Napoli cemented their status as kings of group C. Union Berlin were not able to make any noise in the UCL after a miraculous top-four finish in the German Bundesliga last season, generating just two points and finishing as the group’s caboose.
Group D
Group D was a tale of two teams. Spain’s Real Sociedad and Italy’s Inter Milan were clear of their competition as both earned 12 points. Neither held an upper hand against the other, however, as both of their matches ended in draws. Real Sociedad ended up in first place due to their superior goal differential of five compared to Inter’s three. Inter will have to go through a tough matchup in the Round of 16 if they want to reach the UCL Final for the second year in a row.
Group E
Atlético Madrid became the second club from Madrid to win their group. They went undefeated and secured 14 points, including a 6-0 bashing of Celtic, the lone Scottish club in the competition. Italian side Lazio took 10 points and safely claimed second place in a relatively drama-free group.
Group F
Group F, dubbed the “Group of Death” prior to the tournament’s start, more than made up for the group E snoozefest. Perennial Bundesliga runner-ups Borussia Dortmund finally claimed first place by scoring 11 points, only losing one match against the French side Paris Saint-Germain. PSG, along with Italy’s AC Milan brought the drama in group F, as both clubs managed eight points throughout their six matches. The teams traded wins, with PSG beating Milan 3-0 before the Milanese club took revenge by beating PSG 2-1. However, PSG’s dominant victory gave them a better goal differential and helped them advance to the Round of 16. Newcastle United had recently found great form in the English Premier League, but were unable to match that success on the international stage. They only took five points, three of which came from their lone highlight, a 4-1 rout of PSG.
Group G
Premier league top-dog and reigning UCL champion Manchester City were the other team who won all six games in their group. Man City’s offense was consistently unstoppable as they scored three goals in every match, giving them the highest goal total in the group stage with 18. German side RB Leipzig took second in the group with 12 points, only dropping points in their games against Man City. Serbian representative Crvena Zvezda notched the least points earned of any team in the group stage, only managing one with a single draw.
Group H
The final group came down to the wire. FC Barcelona became the fourth Spanish side to win their group, concluding a great group stage for the country’s top teams. They tied with Portuguese club FC Porto for the top spot, each side garnering 12 points. Barcelona won the group on head-to-head results, defeating Porto in both matches between the teams. Ukraine’s Shakhtar Donetsk narrowly missed out on the Round of 16 with a 5-3 loss to Porto on the final matchday.
Round of 16
The Champions League keeps the draw going in the Round of 16. The eight group winners and eight group runners-up are placed into two groups, and one team from the first group is drawn to play a team from the second group. The only parameters are that the teams could not have been in the same group for the prior stage and cannot be from the same domestic league. Teams will play two matches, or “legs,” against their opponent; one at their home stadium and one at their opponent’s, to negate home-field advantage. The team who has a better goal differential after the two legs, called an “aggregate,” advances to the quarterfinals, where they are randomly drawn against another winner from the Round of 16.
Arsenal FC vs FC Porto
Arsenal and Porto both sit in third place in their respective domestic leagues at the time of writing. The former’s recent form is questionable, as the club sat atop the Premier League until a three-match run saw them only manage one point. They have won their past two fixtures, however. Porto, on the other hand, have been dominant recently in Liga Portugal, winning their last three games by an aggregate score of 10-1. This match will be a battle between two of the top five scoring offenses in the group stage. Arsenal’s star-studded attack led by Bukayo “Starboy” Saka will prove to be too much for the Porto defense. Arsenal win 5-4.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Real Sociedad
PSG have historically disappointed in the latter rounds of the Champions League. However, they have had a good run of form recently in Ligue 1 and don’t face a particularly tough opponent. Real Sociedad, on the other hand, have only taken victory in one of their last six domestic matches, and look to be slipping from the upper echelon in La Liga. Their defense, which only allowed two goals throughout the group stage, will be tasked with stopping one of the best players in the world, PSG’s Kylian Mbappe. However, Sociedad has not faced a threat like Mbappe. PSG win 4-1.
PSV Eindhoven vs Borussia Dortmund
PSV are dominating the Eredivisie. The Dutch squad maintains a 12-point gap between them and second place at the time of writing. Their offense has been firing all cylinders but their defense has been leaky, especially against international competition. Dortmund have been having an underwhelming season in the Bundesliga by their lofty standards, only sitting in fourth place with a sizable gap between them and the top spot. PSV will look towards key defender Jordan Teze to hold down the backline as the underdogs squeak out a narrow win and advance to the quarterfinals. PSV win 4-3.
FC Copenhagen vs Manchester City
This is truly a David vs Goliath matchup. Copenhagen scored 10 fewer goals than Man City whilst allowing one more in the group stage. Additionally, half of Copenhagen’s goals came in one game, a 4-3 victory over Manchester United. Copenhagen will have to hope that they can create that same magic against the other Manchester squad. Man City blitzed through the group stage by scoring the most goals of any team, and their dominance won’t stop any time soon. UCL top scorer Erling Haaland will put an end to Copenhagen’s biblical story. Man City win 6-0.
Napoli vs FC Barcelona
Napoli reached the semifinal in last year’s edition of the Champions League, and have continued to perform admirably throughout the group stage this year. However, their two losses to Real Madrid don’t bode well for their matches against Barcelona. Barcelona have been having a poor season in La Liga and currently sit in fourth place. Their group stage campaign was also somewhat lackluster and included losses to the third and fourth place teams. Napoli, with the help of forward Victor Osimhen will banish their Spanish demons and advance by scoring more away goals than Barcelona. 3-3 draw, Napoli win on tiebreaker.
Inter Milan vs Atlético Madrid
Inter reached last year’s final by defeating city rival AC Milan in the semifinal. This year, however, their group stage campaign did not look very promising. The Italian side did not lose but rarely lit up the scoreboard, with the exception of a 3-3 draw against Benfica. Outside of that game, however, Inter’s defense only allowed two goals. Atlético Madrid were the polar opposite, scoring 17 goals including the aforementioned 6-0 drubbing of Celtic. Atlético will need to harness this firepower for the Round of 16 if they wish to make it past Inter’s stout defense, and they’ll look towards veteran forward Antoine Griezmann to provide their spark. Atlético Madrid win 4-2.
Lazio vs Bayern Munich
Lazio are in the midst of a middling season in Serie A, as the club sits in sixth position at the time of writing. Their group stage was nothing to write home about either, as Lazio allowed as many goals as they scored. Bayern, on the other hand, are narrowly second in the Bundesliga and had an exceptional group stage. The German powerhouse are reaping the rewards of new signing Harry Kane, who netted four goals in the group stage and will be the focal point for Bayern’s attack moving forward. Bayern win 4-1.
RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid
The final matchup in the Round of 16 presents a battle between two very different clubs. Leipzig are infants in the football world, only being founded in 2009. However, they received lots of investment and quickly rose through the ranks of German football, where they now sit near the top of today. Real Madrid, on the other hand, is one of the world’s most historic clubs. They also own the most Champions League trophies with 14. Real Madrid will be hungry to return to glory after an exit in last year’s semi final, and rising superstar Jude Bellingham will be their catapult.
Final Prediction
Unfortunately due to the nature of the UCL’s randomized drawing method, matches can only be predicted after each round is completed. That does not mean general predictions cannot be made, however. Man City will look to take home the trophy for the second year in a row, but Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, and PSG all have a realistic chance of stealing it for themselves. Furthermore, Atlético Madrid and Arsenal are two dark horses with the ability to cause chaos if drawn against the top dogs. With that being said, I believe that come June 1, Real Madrid will be crowned UCL champions of the world.
All stats taken from UEFAChampionsLeague.com as of January 30.
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