The Seoul Series marks the beginning of the 2024 MLB season, with the Padres and Dodgers traveling to South Korea. That means it’s time for me to take another crack at predicting what players will take home the major awards and what team will hoist the World Series trophy at the end of the season.
AL MVP: Corey Seager, SS, Texas Rangers
With Shohei Ohtani moving to the National League, this is the most open the award has been in the last three seasons. Who better than last year’s runner up and World Series MVP to take home the award? Corey Seager was arguably the best hitter in baseball last year, finishing towards the top of nearly every offensive category, despite missing 43 games. Seager set personal bests in RBIs, batting average and OPS, while matching his best home run total and narrowly missing his record for doubles, still leading the American League in the category. Though a surgery has prevented Seager from getting any action in Spring Training, Seager didn’t let injuries slow him down last year and won’t do so this year.
Other candidates: Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees; Juan Soto, OF, New York Yankees; Yordan Álvarez, OF, Houston Astros; José Ramírez, 3B, Cleveland Guardians; Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays; Marcus Semien, 2B, Texas Rangers; Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros; Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals
NL MVP: Mookie Betts, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
Since joining the Dodgers, Mookie Betts has finished within the top five in MVP voting in three of the four seasons, being the runner up in 2020 and 2023. Betts will face a new challenge: shifting over to shortstop, a position he has played just 16 games at the professional level. Betts was tasked with playing the most games at second base in his career last season and thrived, having six defensive runs saved in 485 innings at the position. No matter what position he’s played, Betts’ offense has never waivered and last season was no different, hitting 40 doubles, driving in 107 runs and launching a career best 39 home runs, en route to his sixth Silver Slugger award. Betts hasn’t won a MVP since 2018, but the drought will end this season.
Other candidates: Ronald Acuña Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves; Shohei Ohtani, DH, Los Angeles Dodgers, Freddie Freeman, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers; Bryce Harper, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies; Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks; Francisco Lindor, SS, New York Mets; Matt Olson, 1B, Atlanta Braves; Austin Riley, 3B, Atlanta Braves
AL Cy Young: Luis Castillo, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Reigning AL Cy Young Gerrit Cole is set to miss at least a month of the season, so it seems unlikely for a repeat winner for the award. Luis Castillo was excellent in his first full season in the Pacific Northwest, posting a 3.34 ERA and striking out 219 batters, while being a workhorse, making all 33 of his starts. Castillo had the best walk rate of his career, with a 7% walk rate. He turned to his slider 22.1% of the time, the highest rate of his career and it seemed to pay off, as Castillo was an All-Star and finished fifth in AL Cy Young voting last season. This was the first time Castillo earned votes for the award, but it certainly won’t be the last time he’ll be in consideration.
Other candidates: Corbin Burnes, RHP, Baltimore Orioles; Kevin Gausman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays; Tarik Skubal, LHP, Detroit Tigers; Pablo López, RHP, Minnesota Twins; Shane Bieber, RHP, Cleveland Guardians; George Kirby, RHP, Seattle Mariners; Logan Gilbert, RHP, Seattle Mariners; Framber Valdez, LHP, Houston Astros
NL Cy Young: Spencer Strider, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Despite having an ERA nearing four, Spencer Strider finished fourth in Cy Young voting in 2023. After finishing as the runner up for NL Rookie of the Year, Strider continued his dominance, leading baseball in wins (20) and strikeouts (281). Strider primarily used a two pitch mix: his fastball and slider, with the occasional changeup being mixed in. Predictability was his downfall, leading to him adding a curveball to his repertoire, making him even more lethal. With the pitch in the arsenal, it’s very likely that Strider’s ERA will take a dip, the only thing that hurt his Cy Young award case last season.
Other candidates: Zac Gallen, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks; Zack Wheeler, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies; Logan Webb, RHP, San Francisco Giants; Max Fried, LHP, Atlanta Braves; Aaron Nola, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies; Justin Steele, LHP, Chicago Cubs; Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers; Dylan Cease, RHP, San Diego Padres
AL Rookie of the Year: Evan Carter, OF, Texas Rangers
The MLB got a taste of what Evan Carter is capable of, hitting .306 in his first 24 games in the bigs. Texas made the postseason and elected to carry Carter on the postseason roster and he did not disappoint. He hit for a .300 average, popping nine doubles and swiping three bases as the Rangers won their first World Series in franchise history. In his two and a half years in the minors, Carter torched every level he was at and with a taste of both regular and postseason baseball in the MLB, Carter is easily a frontrunner to be the best rookie in the American League, if not the whole sport.
Other candidates: Jackson Holliday, SS/2B, Baltimore Orioles; Wyatt Langford, OF, Texas Rangers; Colt Keith, 3B/2B, Detroit Tigers; Junior Caminero, 3B/SS, Tampa Bay Rays; Heston Kjerstad, OF, Baltimore Orioles; Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Los Angeles Angels; Colton Cowser, OF, Baltimore Orioles; Parker Meadows, OF, Detroit Tigers
NL Rookie of the Year: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Two foreign-born players came overseas to the MLB and finished top five in Rookie of the Year voting last season, with Kodai Senga finishing as the runner up in the NL, while Masataka Yoshida finished sixth in the AL. Shohei Ohtani was the last Asian-born player to win Rookie of the Year and now teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be the next to. Yamamoto was nearly untouchable in his seven seasons with the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball. Last season was his best, as he had a 1.16 ERA, allowing just two home runs and striking out 176 in 24 games, leading to Yamamoto winning his third straight MVP award. Yamamoto is on arguably the best team in baseball and will have a chance to be the ace of the star studded rotation.
Other candidates: Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers; Shota Imanaga, LHP, Chicago Cubs; Jung Hoo Lee, OF, San Francisco Giants; Jackson Merrill, SS/OF, San Diego Padres; Noelvi Marté, 3B/SS, Cincinnati Reds; Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Chicago Cubs; Masyn Winn, SS, St. Louis Cardinals; James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals
World Series Champion: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have made back-to-back postseasons, falling just two games short of winning a World Series in 2022 and just one game short of consecutive NL pennants in 2023. Philadelphia locked up Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. Bryce Harper starts the year healthy, after missing the first month of last season. Trea Turner is now in his second season with the Phillies, after an abysmal start to his Philadelphia career for a large portion of the 2023 season. With the same core players returning, such as Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott, Philadelphia is in a great position to make another deep playoff run.
All stats are from Baseball Reference and Fan Graphs as of March 16, 2024
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