Some of the biggest breakout players in 2024 were Riley Greene, Ezequiel Tovar, Jurickson Profar, Lawrence Butler, Hunter Brown and Sean Manaea. Breakouts come in all shapes and sizes, whether it’s a power burst or dropping their ERA by more than a total run. With that in mind, who will have that breakout season?
Starting Pitcher- Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates
When fans think of the Pirates pitching staff, reigning NL Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes is the first arm many think of. Slotting behind him and nearly as talented is Jared Jones. He debuted alongside Skenes, with mixed results. The Pirate’s 2020 second round pick found immense success in Pittsburgh, posting a 2.87 ERA in 12 starts. The road wasn’t as friendly for the righty, with an ERA nearing six in his 10 outings away from PNC Park.
The underlying stats implied that his splits should’ve been opposite, as his walk percentage (6.4%) and strikeout rate (26.7%) were better away from Pittsburgh (8.5% and 25.8%). The outstanding element to his road struggles was issuing extra base hits, allowing just one less multi-base knock, despite 16.1 fewer innings.
With that, a midseason lat strain took the better part of two months away from Jones. Upon returning, he looked like a shell of his pre-injury self, having an ERA two runs higher than before. Even with the second half struggles, Jones’ expected numbers showed that the outcome isn’t accurate to what the result should’ve been. Both pre- and post-injury, his FIP was higher than his XFIP, with his final six starts expected number nearly a full run lower.
Avoiding bats is Jones’ strong suit, grading in the 84th percentile of whiff rate. However, when opponents made contact, they barrelled baseballs, as Jones ranked 103rd of 107 qualified pitchers in hard hit percentage. His two plus pitches, fastball and slider, were exceptional, combined for a +10 run value. Jones’ supplemental pitches, curveball and changeup, which he combined to use just about 16% of the time, totaled a -7 run value, both issuing batting averages north of .300.
More reliance on his putaway pitches and avoiding barrels more frequently could put Jones in the upper echelon of pitchers in the game.
Relief Pitcher- Craig Yoho, Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers bullpen has been notorious for developing relief arms to some of the best in the game. Josh Hader and Devin Williams have been the most notable, but Brewers’ 19th prospect Craig Yoho could be the next reliever to break out.
Following being drafted in the eighth round of the 2023 draft and a subpar three outings in rookie ball, Yoho began with Milwaukee’s High A affiliate, the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. This was just one of three teams the prospect would be a part of, dominating his way to AAA, Nashville. Tossing just under 58 innings across the three levels, Yoho produced a 0.94 ERA and 104 strikeouts. His WHIP shadowed his ERA, also standing at a 0.94.
The biggest factor of his 2024 performance is his ability to keep his ball in the park, not issuing a single home run, while forcing groundouts nearly double the amount of flyouts (1.75). This can largely be accredited to his devastating 70 grade changeup, which grades as his best pitch. He pairs his go-to pitch a low-90s fastball, sweeper and cutter.
Though his AAA stats weren’t as polarizing as the ones from the other two stages of the minor leagues, any team is still unbelievably satisfied with the numbers he produced, averaging 11.3 K/9 and 1.26 ERA.
Diving deeper into Yoho’s AAA games, one game is responsible for his “struggles.” Against the Charlotte Knights on Aug. 27, the eighth rounder was tagged for two hits, two earned runs and three walks. This outing was responsible for all of Yoho’s earned runs and 33% of his walks allowed at the level.
When comparing Yoho to the aforementioned dominant closers, in each of their final seasons before promotion, he had better stats across the board, though Hader’s final minor league season was as a starting pitcher.
Either way, with the opportunity to join the big club’s bullpen in his third season as a professional, Yoho has the opportunity to be the next great closer in Milwaukee baseball history.
Catcher- Patrick Bailey, San Francisco Giants
Just two years after selecting second overall Joey Bart to be the successor to Buster Posey as the long-term catcher for San Francisco, the Giants picked Patrick Bailey 13th overall in the 2020 MLB draft.
After Bart fizzled out as the heir to Posey, Bailey was the next in line, being a premier defensive catcher in the game, most recently being named the NL Gold Glove recipient for the position. Unfortunately for San Fran and Bailey, his offense has matched his defensive prowess.
Though at first glance it seems he isn’t a productive bat, this isn’t the case for the third year backstop. The first major point was the difference in his output before and after the All-Star break. In the first half, Bailey was hitting nearly 50 points higher than his career average (.283) and matching his home run total from the season prior.
An August oblique strain sidelined him for just a week and a half, but it was a part that Bailey had been trying to play through it, batting .063 and having a -55 wRC+ in the month. Starting the month with a respectable .267 average, by the turn of the calendar, it had plummeted to .228. He was able to bounce back to some extent in September, but the damage from the dog days of summer had been done. The difference in wRC+ was nearly 100 points, as by the All-Star break, Bailey had produced at a 121 clip.
Another big factor was where in the lineup Bailey was slotted. Despite hitting sixth just 13 times in 2024, his productivity was best when supporting the heart of the lineup, manufacturing a .952 OPS, over 180 points better than his next best OPS from the third spot. With the lineup was the handedness of opposing pitching. The switch hitter thrived from the left side of the plate, popping all but three of his extra base hits from that side of this dish.
The biggest factor is continuing to improve his average launch angle and exit velocity. The uptick showed signs that Bailey’s offense should’ve finished higher than what the result was, with a sizable gap between his output and expected batting average and OPS.
Bailey’s defensive value will keep the backstop employed for the foreseeable future, but an improvement on the offensive side could solidify him as a top catcher in the game.
First Baseman- Michael Toglia, Colorado Rockies
Debuting in 2022, Michael Toglia struggled to find his footing in his September call up. Once more in 2023, the switch hitting slugger couldn’t translate his minor league success to the major league level. The common denominator for both seasons was his strikeout rate, with big league pitchers punching out the former first round pick over 30% of the time. While this trend continued in 2024, Toglia found his power stroke, popping 25 homers in just under 400 at bats.
As many players do, Toglia thrived against fastball variants, slugging .570, in large part to 17 of his 25 long balls being from these pitches. Breaking balls still caused Toglia trouble, coming away with just 18 hits against the bending stuff, though his exit velocity versus this pitch style was the highest of the three categories.
Many Rockies players have fallen victim to “The Coors Effect,” where the heightened altitude of the Rocky Mountains benefit players’ numbers in Coors Field. Though his ability to produce hits was better in Colorado, Toglia’s power supply primarily came away from home, with 17 home runs being as a visitor.
Familiarity against big league pitching played a large role in the improvement in Toglia’s approaches, as the first baseman nearly doubled his walk rate in the second half.
Putting bat to ball will be the key to Toglia’s continued growth, as he graded in the bottom fifth percentile of whiff rate (34.9%) and K rate (32.1%). When he makes contact, the 26-year-old grades as one of the more ferocious bats in the game, grading in the 90th percentile or higher in average exit velocity (92.1 mph), barrel percentage (17.3%), hard hit percentage (50.2%) and launch angle sweet spot (39.2°).
Second Baseman- Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles
After a torrid hot 2023, just a season removed from being the first overall pick, Jackson Holliday was on pace to be the best prospect of the recent batch. Instead, in his 60 games in the show, the struggles from the leap was apparent, striking out more than 33% of the time. With that, his ability to draw walks plummeted below his minor league average, earning a free pass about 7% of his plate appearances.
Pressure played a big factor in Holliday’s struggles. As baseball’s top prospect at just 20 years old, the promotion to the big leagues seemed to be just a bit too much, being with the big club for most of the first month of the season, before he was demoted to AAA for the preceding three months. Holliday regained his form, tearing apart opponents with a .908 OPS, finding his approach again, drawing walks 21.7% of his times at the plate.
Upon his repromotion to the bigs, Holliday couldn’t truly replicate his success that he regained, but facets of his success was there. Though his approach wasn’t the same in August, his power stroke followed suit, totaling eight extra base hits and 15 RBIs. In September, his pop faltered, but his approach returned, with his lowest strikeout rate of his full months in the bigs (27.0%) and highest walk rate (11.1%).
With the pressure of his first MLB season behind him, Holliday can find his rhythm with less weighing on him. The flashes of why he was the top pick in 2022 and top prospect have shown, but were overshadowed by underwhelming results.
Third Baseman- Noelvi Marte, Cincinnati Reds
Thinking of the Reds’ breakouts over the past few seasons, Elly De La Cruz, Hunter Greene and Matt McLain are the players who come to mind. Noelvi Marte has the potential to be the next to help Cincinnati to their next great era of baseball.
Marte was the headline of the return package from Seattle in the Luis Castillo trade. The Dominican Republic native tore through the minors, ending 2023 with a brief stint with the big club. In the 35 games he played in, Marte hit .316, while popping 10 extra base hits, showing signs that 2024 would be his year to solidify himself with the big club.
However, in March of 2024, Marte was suspended for 80 games, due to violating MLB’s performance-enhancing drugs policy. After returning from the suspension, Marte began in AAA Louisville, where struggles ensued. Having faith in a resurgence, he was called back up to the majors. Unfortunately for the Reds, Marte’s struggles continued, hitting just .210 across his 66 games back.
The talent has always been there for Marte and with the performance-enhancing drugs violation in the rearview mirror, he looks to live up to his once top prospect potential. Though it is possible that he starts the 2025 season in the farm system, it won’t be long before Marte makes his mark on the majors.
Shortstop- Brayan Rocchio, Cleveland Guardians
After a cup of coffee in 2023, Brayan Rocchio became the Guardians’ everyday shortstop, flashing phenomenal leather. On the other hand, his offense lacked the production of its defensive counterpart.
Though the overall offensive output wasn’t outstanding, there was still plenty to like. The first factor being his ability to draw walks, producing a 10% walk rate, the second highest mark at any point in his professional career. His output on the road was significantly better than his marks at home, producing a better walk rate, K rate, on base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS away from Cleveland. With that, his base running was better away as well, being successful on seven of nine stolen base attempts, compared to his three successful swipes on seven attempts at Progressive Field.
The month of September with his best slashline of the regular season, helping Cleveland to a playoff berth. When it mattered most, Rocchio produced splendidly, having a 164 wRC+ and a .906 OPS in 33 postseason at bats. The playoff performance has returned in Spring Training, hitting .300 in the 12 games he’s played.
Rocchio isn’t expected to be the best bat amongst the Guardians hitters. His glove already provides the team with plus value. However, if he is able to have the success he showcased in the postseason of last year and this Spring Training, his value to the team skyrockets.
Left Fielder- Justyn-Henry Malloy, Detroit Tigers
Detroit’s rapid rise to a playoff contender was due to in house development, with Tarik Skubal and Greene being two of the biggest displays of this. Though there are more notable players who will pop off the page for the Tigers, Justyn-Henry Malloy will be a big breakout in 2025.
After being shipped from Atlanta’s farm system, Malloy battered pitching in AAA Toledo, producing one and a half seasons of an OPS in the upper .800s. This prompted Detroit to bring him up to the majors. After a strugglesome month of June, Malloy flourished in July, having a .471 slugging percentage and 131 wRC+.
August saw the woes return, leading to a short demotion to AAA, before being recalled in September. Strikeouts were the backbone of Malloy’s troubles, having a 37% strikeout rate in the majors in 2024.
Malloy thrived against lefties, having an OPS nearing .900 and a 155 wRC+, 89 points higher than against righties. Though his strikeouts were still up against southpaws, he drew walks in 16.4% of his plate appearances.
Detroit made the playoffs and though Malloy got minimal attempts to produce, he took advantage of those moments, reaching base in seven of his 11 plate appearances. His approach from the playoffs has parlayed to preseason camp, hitting .278 and reaching base at a .395 clip.
Though many of his appearances won’t be in leftfield, as Greene is primarily positioned there, Malloy will be given plenty of at bats this season to be the next developed impact player in the Motor City.
Center Fielder- Jacob Young, Washington Nationals
In 2024, Jacob Young was given the role as everyday centerfielder. With that, he thrived defensively, ending the year with 12 defensive runs saved and 20 outs above average, thanks in large part to his excellent speed. The outfield wasn’t the only place he displayed his plus speed, swiping 33 bases on 43 attempts. However, his bat left a lot to be desired, finishing with a .648 OPS.
Outside the months of April and August, Young didn’t produce an OPS above .700. This was in large part to his lack of drawing walks, earning a free pass less than 6% of the time. While he’s never earned many free passes, this was the lowest number of his career. Similarly with strikeouts, Young was punched out just under 20% of his plate appearances, the worst clip of his career.
Young slotted in the ninth spot in the Nationals lineup for the majority of the season, but in the 23 games in which he hit eighth, he hit .304 with a 114 wRC+. Overwhelming power hasn’t ever been a large part of Young’s game, but Young entered Spring camp with much added muscle, potentially focusing on an improvement in his power production.
Though his added mass hasn’t translated over as much as expected, the Nationals know the floor of Young’s production: a Gold Glove caliber outfielder. However, if the bat does come around as hoped, Young could evolve into one of the premier players at the position.
Right Fielder- Jerar Encarnacion, San Francisco Giants
After spending the beginning of his career with the Marlins, primarily in their farm system, Jerar Encarnacion signed a minor league deal with the Giants in May of 2024. Spending the first half of his season in AAA Sacramento, he was called up to the big club.
In his 35 games following his August call up, Encarnacion displayed mixed results, but showed flashes of what he could develop to be. He didn’t quite torch the bigs as he did AAA, he produced a .425 slugging percentage.
The biggest glaring flaw of Encaracion’s game is his strikeouts, being put away via the K 28.6% of the time. When he does make contact, he crushes the ball, with his xAVG, xSLG and xwOBA all being at minimum 25 points higher than his actual output.
In a small sample size, Encarnacion was unbelievably better on the road, with a .844 OPS compared to his .594 OPS at Oracle Park. Another split that could improve is his lefty/righty splits. Though he produced a better average against lefties, his power numbers were much better versus the same handedness, popping his five homers against them.
The power upside is there for Encarnacion, having an average exit velocity of 95 miles per hour. If he could make a minimal adjustment to lower the strikeouts, he could be a vicious bat in the heart of San Fran’s lineup.
All stats are from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Baseball Reference and MLB as of March 13.
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